China's GDP expected to grow 6.2% in H1

Workers assemble wind turbine wheels at a factory in Lianyungang Economic and Technological Development Zone, East China's Jiangsu province, Feb 28, 2023. [Photo by Geng Yuhe/for China Daily]

China's economy saw an overall recovery and improvement in the first half of this year, with GDP forecast to expand 6.2 percent year-on-year, The Paper said Monday quoting a report released by the China Macroeconomy Forum.

In 2023, the impact of COVID-19 has faded away, while economic order has gotten back on track. According to the report, the key task is to achieve the recovery of macroeconomy and restore microcosmic foundation, in a bid to return to the track of expansionary growth.

During the first half of this year, China's macroeconomy has recovered rapidly, due to strong pent-up demand, policy support and a low comparison base, said Liu Xiaoguang, an associate professor at Renmin University of China's National Academy of Development and Strategy, and a primary member of the China Macroeconomy Forum.

Multiple pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations have been relieved to some extent, Liu said, adding the market retreat has bottomed out and staged a rebound.

The report predicted China's real GDP growth will stand at 6.0-6.7 percent in the first half of this year, with a reference figure of 6.2 percent. Given the process of economic recovery and a low base effect, China's full-year GDP is expected to grow at 5.2-6.1 percent.

Consumption will become a key driver for economic growth in the short term, the report said. In 2023, consumption and investment is predicted to grow 8 and 4.5 percent respectively. Exports are estimated to fall 4.9 percent this year; however, the country will see a 1.8 percent increase in net exports.

This round of economic recovery will experience three phases: restoration of social order and trading, restoration of balance sheet, and regular expansion, the report said, adding that, at present, China's economy recovery is staged at a key transition period from phase one to phase two.

The report suggested more proactive fiscal policy and monetary policy easing. Efforts should be accelerated to expand domestic demand, especially in promoting consumption and stabilizing investment, in a bid to achieve a smooth transition to market-oriented deep recovery.