Green capacity addition expected in 2023

China is expected to add more renewable sources than coal to its power generation capacity this year, with solar likely to show a record yearly increase, industry experts said.

China is expected to add 95 to 120 gigawatts (GW) of solar power in 2023, or as much as 30 percent, a record annual rise in capacity, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA). The world's biggest solar products maker and solar power generator put into operation 87.41 GW of new solar power last year, driving total installed capacity to 392.61 GW.

The estimate is in line with forecasts by the National Energy Administration, which has said that China will add 160 GW of wind and solar capacity in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 33 percent, with a focus on deeper integration of solar and wind power to the grid. The country's solar capacity will reach 490 GW by the end of 2023, it said.

The China Electricity Council, a trade body of power producers, said installed solar and wind capacity will exceed hydropower for the first time in 2023. It expects the largest solar capacity addition in a single year in 2023, compared to around 85 GW of capacity added in 2022.

The council also expects China's wind capacity to reach around 430 GW in 2023, a growth of around 61 GW from 2022. The capacity additions were 71 GW in 2020, 48 GW in 2021, and 40 GW in 2022, the council said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights believes China will continue to add more renewable power generation capacity in 2023 rather than coal-fired generation. It will, for yet another calendar year, account for the world's most renewables growth, it said.

"China will add about 45-50 GW of coal-fired generation capacity in 2023, and around 200 GW of renewable capacity," said Caroline Zhu, senior analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Zhu said China has accounted for roughly 44 percent of additional global renewable capacity and more than 73 percent of Asia's renewables capacity addition in recent years and this trend is expected to continue in 2023.

China is capable of meeting and exceeding the target of having 33 percent of its electricity consumption from renewables by 2025, she said.

While the development of solar power stations in China is not without challenges, the country's solar capacity has been growing rapidly and Chinese solar firms have rapidly sought to expand in overseas markets, said Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of CPIA.

China exported about 36.3 GW of solar wafers and 23.8 GW of solar cells in 2022, up 61 percent and 131 percent year-on-year, respectively. Exports of solar modules last year grew by 56 percent, CPIA data showed.