China's life expectancy projected to surpass 80 years in 2035: study

BEIJING -- The life expectancy of newborns on the Chinese mainland is expected to rise steadily to reach 81.3 years in 2035, with women in some provinces expected to surpass 90 years of age, according to a new study published in the journal The Lancet Public Health.

The life expectancy study was led by researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Nanjing University of Science and Technology. Based on large epidemiological and demographic datasets, they used a prevalent probabilistic model to forecast the life expectancy in 2035.

Their projections indicate a 96 percent probability that life expectancy at birth on the mainland will reach 79 years in 2030, and a 93 percent probability that it will surpass 80 years in 2035.

Most of the projected gains in life expectancy relate to older people, especially women, the study highlighted, estimating a life expectancy of 85.1 years for women and 78.1 years for men.

At the provincial level, women in Beijing have the highest projected life expectancy in 2035, with an 81 percent probability of breaking the 90-year mark, followed by those in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shanghai.

Men in Shanghai are projected to have the highest life expectancy at birth in 2035, with a 77 percent probability of living past 83.

Future life expectancy remains associated with location, with wealthier eastern provinces having a higher life expectancy than more rural and poorer western regions, the study says.

Extending the average life expectancy of the population is a main task of the Chinese government. The "Healthy China 2030" blueprint, a national strategy to improve the health of the Chinese population, set the goal of increasing the average life expectancy at birth from 76.3 years in 2015 to 79 years in 2030.

The 14th Five-Year National Health Plan raised the target average life expectancy to 80 years in 2035.

"These national goals to improve life expectancy will be achieved," researchers said in the projection study.

Increases in life expectancy will require healthcare and social services resources, which means that advance planning is needed, the study says. Average life expectancy reached 78.2 years in China in 2021, according to statistics released by the National Health Commission. That figure is up from 77.93 years in 2020.