Chinese scientist makes progress in intensity forecast of typhoon

"The international meteorologists' ability to forecast a typhoon's intensity will be closely based on our latest research results."

Qiao Fangli, Party secretary of the First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, said on Jan 13, 2018 at the 2017 annual academic conference of Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM).

Over the past decades, the track forecasts of typhoon have been significantly improved due to gaining increased knowledge on typhoon science and monitoring ability.

But improving intensity forecast of tropical cyclones has always been difficult, including overestimating the intensity of weak typhoons and underestimating the strong ones.

A research team led by Qiao has made breakthrough in typhoon's intensity forecast after more than 10 years of research. They studied the sensitivity of typhoon simulation via three physical processes, using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model.

The physical processes include the effects of wave breaking induced sea spray, ocean vertical mixing associated with non-breaking surface waves, and sea surface cooling due to intense rainfall.

The results showed that by enhancing the air-sea heat flux, sea spray will lead to an increase in typhoon intensity, while non-breaking wave-induced vertical mixing and rainfall will result in a decrease.

In 2015, Qiao's team verified its research results on over 20 typhoons, proving that the new model can significantly improve the precision of forecasting a typhoon's intensity, especially in regards to a strong typhoon's intensity. The team plans to further business cooperation with relevant institutes to offer services regarding disaster prevention and mitigation.

The research results, published on the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, will a lay solid foundation in promoting intensity forecast of typhoon and serve as a new solution for prevention and reduction of ocean disasters.